More Yemeni Than Russians?

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“The fragmentation of Islamic civilization. With birthrates in Muslim societies more than double the European average, Islamic countries are bound to put pressure on Europe and the U.S. in the years ahead. If, as is forecast, the population of Yemen will exceed that of Russia by 2050, there must be either dramatic improvements in the Middle East’s economic performance or substantial emigration from the Arab world to senescent Europe. Yet the subtle colonization of Europe’s cities by Muslims does not necessarily portend the advent of a new and menacing “Eurabia.” In fact, the Muslim world is as divided as it has ever been. This division is not merely between Sunni and Shiite. It is also between those seeking a peaceful modus vivendi with the West (embodied in Turkey’s desire to join the EU) and those drawn to the Islamic Bolshevism of the likes of Osama bin Laden. Opinion polls from Morocco to Pakistan suggest high levels of anti-American sentiment, but not unanimity. In Europe, only a minority expresses overt sympathy for terrorist organizations; most young Muslims in England clearly prefer assimilation to jihad. We are a long way from a bipolar clash of civilizations, much less the rise of a new caliphate that might pose a geopolitical threat to the U.S.

In short, each of the obvious 21st-century hegemons — the U.S., Europe, China — seems to contain within it the seeds of decline; while Islam remains a diffuse force in world politics, lacking the resources of a superpower…”

Posted on Monday, June 21, 2004
http://hnn.us/roundup/entries/5777.html

H/T: http://pblosser.blogspot.com

Also of note: Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years

If we can or will learn or observe anything from the Anglican Crisis (version 2007) it is that in the very near future, Christianity will become much more the domain of the Global South. As Russia shrinks and its citizenry is increasingly Islamic or secular, Christianity grows by leaps and bounds in Africa and Asia.

But while what may be the inevitable unfolds before us, now might be a good time for a general Western reassesment of the prevailing views on contraception and fertility. One more soul might really be what we all need to be open to recieving.

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15 Responses to More Yemeni Than Russians?

  1. abufazl says:

    The reality is that the Islamic world has been in a decline for hundreds of years. Only now are certain countries moving forward like Iran and Saudi Arabia in terms of economics and in terms of religion sunni’s have never been forward. The shiites of the world have done things which were unthinkable for instance the defeating of the Israeli Army which is one of the strongest armys in the world. If the concept of religion is studied and why such a thing as religion has to exist and what the pros and cons of religion are and what the opposite arguments are against religion one will see that there is a necessity for religion. Then one must see why there are so many different religions? is there a necessity for choosing one over the other ? ect… If such a thing is studied the ‘Islamic World’ and ‘liberal’ and ‘extremist’ muslims will be concepts which are from the very start considered incorrect and obsolete ways of thinking. I recommend further reading at http://www.al-islam.org.

  2. Nan says:

    No, thanks.

  3. Karen says:

    There is a perfect correllation between high birthrates and being a war-ridden, dirt poor hellhole. NONE of the six highest-fertility countries: Afghanistan, Yemen, Nigeria, Uganda, the Gaza Strip, and Saudi Arabia, are anything like stable, developed places. Saudi Arabia has oil wealth, but that’s it. Without oil, the desert kingdom is another Afghanistan. To the extent that these places pose any kind of threat to the rest of the world it’s because they have too many people competing for too few resources and therefore will want to export their surplus population of violent uncivilized males to the rest of the world. We need to find ways for these places to develop and stabilize and not fantasize about the Evil Brown Hordes.

  4. Dr. Eric says:

    “To the extent that these places pose any kind of threat to the rest of the world it’s because they have too many people competing for too few resources and therefore will want to export their surplus population of violent uncivilized males to the rest of the world.”

    Are they uncivilized because they are Arab? Is that your point? Do I detect some racism in this quote?

    Maybe we should kill or abort all the brown people. Are you sure your name is not Margaret Sanger?

  5. Nan says:

    Speaking of war-ridden, dirt-poor hellholes that lack government and infrastructure, there are much better examples; Somalia, Liberia and the Congo. None of them are Arab countries, however.

  6. Tito Edwards says:

    I wouldn’t to much about any “Islamic” ascendency. First of all, Islam is incapable of developing industry nor democracy. Both need an open exchange of ideas with Islam is inherantly incapable of. For as much as Turkey or even Saudi Arabia may be “industrializing”, the Turks are still at the very bottom of the totum poll when it comes to economy when compared with European nations. Saudi Arabia has no other major source of industry with the exception of Oil… and that is hugely financed and developed by American companies with nearly no local involvement (outside of manual labor–and even that needs to be imported).

    Looking at Israel with no real resources to mine raw materials from, they still have 10X the number of nobel laureates, 10X larger economy, and the most powerful military in the Middle East (10X compared to ALL Arab nations combined).

    So it’s not a matter of ‘lack of resources’ or ‘racism’, it’s inherant in their culture. Unless Islam experiences their own Gregory the Great or Reformation, baring large conversions to Christianity, the Middle East will cotinue to be at the bottom of every major indicator for the forseeable future.

  7. Karen says:

    Dr. Eric, they’re uncivilized because their societies don’t have any place for them, not because they’re Arab. The same principal applies in the high-fertility rate countries Nan mentioned as well. The population in those places is growing too fast for the society to absorb the new members. The main post expressed fear that Muslims are taking over because some Muslim countries have high birth rates. I would also note that Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Uganda are not Arab countries either.

  8. jan says:

    Something to consider before writing Russia off…

    On paper Russia probably looks to be in very poor shape considering birth rates and abortion rates.

    As it is in the USA though, there are two-Russias.

    The Russia of the city, the secular folks, and the Russia of the country-side, the Orthoodx folks.

    In much of the countryside the traditional Orthoodx culture survives and thrives. Indeed in Russia attendance at Divine Liturgy rises every year (this stat is also true of atleast two other Orthodox nations Greece and Romania, and I suspect we will soon see this trend in Serbia.)

    Likewise in Russia, many monastaries which were shut down by the Soviets with the Monks sent off to die in gulags are back and full of young monks. Even Time-Magainze in its “Man of the Year” issue with Putin talked about this phenominal religious rebirth in Russia which has been called the “The Second Baptism of Russia.”

    As the people are retunring in droves to the Orthodox faith we also see the influence of the Orthoodx church growing in the gov’t. Putin and Medvedev both claim to be devout Orthodox Christiains and I am inclined to take them at their word for it. I’d predict that the idea of seperation of Church and State will not last much longer in Russia. Is a nation in which Orthodoxy is the offical religion going to long be a nation where abortion on demand is the law of the land?

    Combine this rebirth of religion with the fact that Russia’s leaders, like the leaders of any other world power, are pragmatic. They realize the crisis that would face them if the largest nation in the world was less populus than tiny middle-eastern nations.

    In Russia right now it is the “year of the family” and there are all kinds of gov’t bennifts to encourage more children, so the gov’t is trying to act on this. It is Russia though so the gov’t won’t be shy about taking even bolder action when need-be.

    I predict that before the next 20 years is up, provided Putin retains his popularity and finds a way to become something like “President for life,”we’ll see Russia very suddenly pass some extremly tough anti-abortion laws. The USSR was the first nation in modern times to legalize abortion on demand, Russia will be the first major world power of our time to recriminalize abortion.

    I should point out I am not Orthodox but I’ve got to say I really admire and applaud their comeback in the former evil empire!

  9. “We need to find ways for these places to develop and stabilize and not fantasize about the Evil Brown Hordes.”

    I can’t say I exactly understand which part of the post you are responding to… Unless it is no response at all but just an opportunity for you to offer what is on your mind.

    Especialy baffled by your sentiment about fatasizing about the “Evil Brown Hordes” (your words) in light of what is actually written…

    If, as is forecast, the population of Yemen will exceed that of Russia by 2050, there must be either dramatic improvements in the Middle East’s economic performance or substantial emigration from the Arab world to senescent Europe. Yet the subtle colonization of Europe’s cities by Muslims does not necessarily portend the advent of a new and menacing “Eurabia.” In fact, the Muslim world is as divided as it has ever been. This division is not merely between Sunni and Shiite. It is also between those seeking a peaceful modus vivendi with the West (embodied in Turkey’s desire to join the EU) and those drawn to the Islamic Bolshevism of the likes of Osama bin Laden.

  10. In Russia right now it is the “year of the family” and there are all kinds of gov’t bennifts to encourage more children, so the gov’t is trying to act on this. It is Russia though so the gov’t won’t be shy about taking even bolder action when need-be.

    The difficulty is will this occur before the decline has gained critical mass and is unstopable? Methinks that this could already be too late, that population expansion through any measure save the “reclaiming”* of Russians in the “Near abroad” is now a day late and a dollar short. (*Georgia had a taste, Ukrainians I talk to know what is coming.)

    It has been a long day and I can’t recall where I read it (I can try to look for it tomorrow) but IIRC, the birthrate in Russia has been too low for entirely too long making the demographic very top-heavy with elderly. Based on the birthrates of some 15-20 years ago, by 2013 there will only be 10M Russians between the ages of 20-29. If and unless each and every Russian woman commits to having 15 kids starting at age 15 and working her way to menopause, there is NO stemming the tide and changing the coming demographic implosion.

    It is rather like a farmer trying to plant all his crops in August.

    Interestingly, the Chinese ethnics of Siberia and the Russian Far East have been quietly resettling the decimated near-ghost towns of Siberia. What was – by 1980s census numbers – a population of 5,000 is today a population of 5,000,000, with some estimates of that doubling in the next – get this – 24 months.

    Something to pray about – are we prepared to evangelize this group?

  11. Dr. Eric says:

    SS,

    I would venture that there will not be Catholics evangelizing this group. From what I’ve read, Russia is not kind to our missionaries.

  12. Rob says:

    -There is a perfect correllation between high birthrates and being a war-ridden, dirt poor hellhole.-

    There is no correlation. Read some history.

    After the agricultural revolution (c. 1650) got underway, the British population soared, and their rising population went on to colonize the world. France, once the most populous and powerful country of the 18th century, stood long in Britain’s way. But the Republic brought low birth rates and starvation, their population dwindled, and Britain dominated the 19th century.

    Of course, then Britain’s birth rates lowered, Lambeth came, and we saw the fall of the British empire in the 20th century.

    So I guess there is a correlation. But it’s not your correlation.

  13. steponovich says:

    according to a magazine article I read russsian birth rate, which is currently higher than most European countries (there would be positive growth right if not for extraordinary high death rate and emmigration) is climbing and Russia should have a positive population growth by 2015ish.

  14. according to a magazine article I read russsian birth rate, which is currently higher than most European countries (there would be positive growth right if not for extraordinary high death rate and emmigration) is climbing and Russia should have a positive population growth by 2015ish.

    I would VERY much like to see this article. Positive population growth is relative population size.

    See:
    http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/RussiasDemographicDeclineContinues.aspx
    http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2007/10/window-on-eurasia-russias-demographic.html

    See especially: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/988723.stm which seems to effectively counter the thought that 2015 will bring any special hope whatsoever.

    As to the idea that the Russian growth rate is higher than most European countries…. If by “most” you mean “Estonia and Ukraine” I can agree, if not, I simply cannot.

    See: http://www.ed-u.com/birth-rates.htm
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

  15. Fr. J. says:

    “To the extent that these places pose any kind of threat to the rest of the world it’s because they have too many people competing for too few resources and therefore will want to export their surplus population of violent uncivilized males to the rest of the world. We need to find ways for these places to develop and stabilize and not fantasize about the Evil Brown Hordes.”

    Karen, I think you have irreparably displayed your true colors. Apparently, there are no “Evil Brown Hordes,” just “violent uncivilized men.” I guess hordes can’t be bad because they include women, women being inherently unviolent and civilized. Your commentary is pure feminist manure.

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