Obama Falling in the Polls: Catholics, Women, Young Voters, College Educated

The latest Zogby poll shows that Obama is falling rapidly in most categories, particularly among Catholics, the young adults and college grads, urban dwellers and southerners. It doesn’t look good for him right now. The surfacing of the infanticide issue at major news outlets yesterday (finally) will not help Obama among swing vote Catholics and the young, I would think. So, I am expecting that the numbers have already dropped from where they were when this study was released. Obama may be toast already.

This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.

The Reuters/Zogby Horserace	August	July
McCain	46%	40%
Obama	41%	47%
Not sure/Other	13%	13%

This latest live operator telephone survey was conducted Aug. 14-16, 2008 from Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York. It included 1,089 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

The poll shows Obama losing voters to McCain in groups where Obama had bigger leads a month ago, such as Democrats, women and younger voters. Obama also lost ground among Catholics and Southerners.

This table shows Obama’s loss of support between the July and August Reuters/Zogby polls among some significant sub-groups (the margin of error is greater for sub-groups than the sample as a whole).

Obama Support	July	August	Difference
Democrats	83%	74%	-9
Women	50%	42%	-8
Catholics	47%	36%	-11
Ages <35	59%	47%	-12
College Grads	51%	40%	-11
Live in Cities	54%	43%	-11
Income <$50,000	53%	46%	-7
Southerners	46%	35%	-11

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